Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 117.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -900 COPP +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +13 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -16.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 111.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -10.8 (+2.2) | 121.3 (-4.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -10.8 (+2.2) | 126.3 (-9.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -10.6 (+2.4) | 126.6 (-9.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -10.2 (+2.8) | 121.3 (-4.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2023 | WAG 62 – 59 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 4-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 61.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#315) | -20.1 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#223) | -3.67 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#253) | -5.24 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#146) | 0.369 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.6% | 35.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 24.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.4% | 38.6% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 11.2% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 58.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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