Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -230 MARQ +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -1.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -4.5 (+6.5) | 153.3 (-2.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -4.2 (+6.8) | 151.4 (-0.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -4.6 (+6.4) | 150.9 (+0.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -4.5 (+6.5) | 149.3 (+1.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#17) | 19.2 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#21) | 4.72 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.91 (#17) | 7.32 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#49) | 0.693 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.8% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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