Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | TTU -1400 DEP +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +14 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -8.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -10.0 (+4.0) | 150.1 (-12.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -7.9 (+6.1) | 150.0 (-12.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -8.2 (+5.8) | 148.7 (-10.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -13.3 (+0.7) | 149.7 (-11.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#30) | 10.1 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#99) | 1.66 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#64) | 2.02 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#79) | 0.524 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 42.0% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.2% | 60.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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