Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | FGCU +120 FUR -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -2.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.3 (+27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -0.2 (-3.2) | 126.5 (+22.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -1.2 (-4.2) | 126.2 (+22.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -1.9 (-4.9) | 124.8 (+24.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -0.9 (-3.9) | 133.3 (+15.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#146) | 4.1 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#226) | 2.85 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#242) | 3.70 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#174) | 0.624 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 11.8% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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