Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -1000 FDU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +9 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -13.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -11.3 (-2.3) | 152.1 (+6.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -10.4 (-1.4) | 150.6 (+8.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -10.8 (-1.8) | 151.1 (+7.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -10.0 (-1.0) | 150.5 (+8.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | FOR 75 – 54 FDU |
| Dec 1, 2023 | FOR 80 – 52 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#230) | -11.9 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#266) | -2.23 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#286) | -3.44 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#269) | 0.371 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 61.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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