Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
Denver Pioneers
80 59
FINAL Big Sky-Summit Challenge
Sacramento State Hornets
Hamilton Gymnasium · December 5, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread DEN -2.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Under
Money DEN -150 / SAC +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total DEN win
Actual DEN +21 139 Won
Massey SAC -1.9 (+22.9)
Massey Totals 139.7 (-0.7)
Bradley-Terry 64%
Weighted B-T 46%
Baseline Plus ML SAC -1.0 (+22.0) 137.2 (+1.8) 42%
Baseline ML SAC -0.2 (+21.2) 138.0 (+1.0) 41%
Baseline Tuned ML SAC -0.3 (+21.3) 137.0 (+2.0) 41%
Efficiency Plus ML SAC -0.6 (+21.6) 136.1 (+2.9) 53%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 8, 2022 SAC 8785 DEN
Nov 15, 2022 SAC 7369 DEN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DEN SAC
Overall 11-21 7-25
Conference 5-11 3-15
Home 8-6 5-11
Away 3-12 2-13
Neutral 0-3 0-1
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L5
Avg Pts For 70.3 63.3
Avg Pts Against 77.7 73.4
Massey -10.7 (#334) -3.7 (#231)
Bradley-Terry -2.24 (#332) -1.89 (#314)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.51 (#354) -3.31 (#332)
RPI 0.357 (#353) 0.408 (#308)
Shooting & Four Factors DEN SAC
FG% 39.8% 40.7%
3PT% 27.6% 33.3%
REB / G 32.1 35.3
OREB / G 9.3 9.8
AST / TO 0.71 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.0% 48.9%
TOV% 19.6% 22.1%
ORB% 25.1% 28.1%
FT Rate 27.2% 20.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.3% 48.4%
Opp TOV% 16.3% 17.5%
DRB% 70.2% 70.8%
Opp FT Rate 37.3% 34.7%

Game Analysis

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