Betting Lines
| Spread | SAC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | SAC -225 DEN +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +2 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | SAC -6.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAC -4.6 (-2.6) | 145.4 (+26.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAC -3.0 (-1.0) | 149.1 (+22.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAC -2.9 (-0.9) | 147.1 (+24.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAC -2.8 (-0.8) | 142.2 (+29.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | DEN 80 – 59 SAC |
| Nov 15, 2022 | SAC 73 – 69 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#195) | -1.5 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#213) | 0.35 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#208) | -0.24 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#148) | 0.454 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 52.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 37.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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