Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -120 SAC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +4 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -7.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -6.0 (-10.0) | 128.9 (+13.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -5.7 (-9.7) | 128.9 (+13.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -5.8 (-9.8) | 131.8 (+10.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | DEN 80 – 59 SAC |
| Dec 8, 2022 | SAC 87 – 85 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 69.2 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#228) | 0.7 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#149) | 0.89 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#149) | 1.15 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#280) | 0.581 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 25.2% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 35.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.5% | 10.9% |
Game Analysis
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