He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Northern Colorado Bears
75 87
FINAL Big Sky-Summit Challenge
St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
Bank of Colorado Arena · December 5, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNCO -4.5 Away covered
O/U 155.5 Over
Money UNCO -195 / STMN +165
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNCO win
Actual STMN +12 162 Lost
Massey UNCO -5.7 (-17.7)
Massey Totals 161.1 (+0.9)
Bradley-Terry 94%
Weighted B-T 98%
Efficiency Plus ML UNCO -3.7 (-15.7) 156.5 (+5.5) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML UNCO -5.0 (-17.0) 153.2 (+8.8) 72%
Baseline ML UNCO -5.6 (-17.6) 153.8 (+8.2) 71%
Baseline Plus ML UNCO -5.6 (-17.6) 156.3 (+5.7) 68%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 22, 2025 STMN 7372 UNCO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNCO STMN
Overall 25-10 24-10
Conference 15-3 12-4
Home 13-2 14-0
Away 9-7 7-8
Neutral 3-1 3-2
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 79.4 81.6
Avg Pts Against 74.5 76.1
Massey 3.8 (#109) 3.1 (#116)
Bradley-Terry 1.19 (#83) -0.57 (#233)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.36 (#70) -0.32 (#191)
RPI 0.594 (#52) 0.456 (#250)
Shooting & Four Factors UNCO STMN
FG% 47.0% 46.7%
3PT% 32.3% 37.0%
REB / G 36.5 32.9
OREB / G 9.8 8.1
AST / TO 1.38 1.13
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.4% 55.7%
TOV% 15.0% 18.7%
ORB% 26.6% 24.5%
FT Rate 15.7% 24.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 50.4%
Opp TOV% 15.4% 18.8%
DRB% 71.7% 68.1%
Opp FT Rate 28.6% 28.4%

Game Analysis

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