Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -175 AUB +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +6 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -6.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -7.7 (-1.7) | 142.5 (+19.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -6.3 (-0.3) | 141.8 (+20.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -6.0 (+0.0) | 140.9 (+21.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -7.0 (-1.0) | 138.8 (+23.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-0 | 13-2 |
| Away | 10-1 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 24.3 (#2) | 23.2 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#56) | 4.91 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#41) | 7.46 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#55) | 0.761 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 52.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 60.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.7% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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