Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | VT +200 VAN -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +16 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -4.8 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -4.5 (-11.5) | 142.0 (+2.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -4.4 (-11.6) | 144.1 (-0.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -3.4 (-12.6) | 141.6 (+2.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -2.1 (-13.9) | 139.5 (+4.5) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-9 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#201) | 7.8 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#251) | 2.53 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#217) | 3.76 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#263) | 0.611 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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