They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
John W. Pope Jr. Convocation Center · December 5, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread CAM -5.5 Away covered
O/U 131.5 Under
Money CAM -210 / CCU +175
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAM win
Actual CCU +1 115 Lost
Massey CAM -5.8 (-6.8)
Massey Totals 122.8 (-7.8)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML CAM -4.9 (-5.9) 129.7 (-14.7) 62%
Baseline ML CAM -4.8 (-5.8) 131.1 (-16.1) 53%
Baseline Tuned ML CAM -4.1 (-5.1) 131.1 (-16.1) 62%
Efficiency Plus ML CAM -3.0 (-4.0) 129.5 (-14.5) 64%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAM CCU
Overall 15-17 10-22
Conference 10-8 3-15
Home 8-6 6-8
Away 7-10 3-13
Neutral 0-1 1-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L5 L2
Avg Pts For 68.9 66.0
Avg Pts Against 69.3 72.2
Massey -4.1 (#237) -4.8 (#252)
Bradley-Terry -0.58 (#234) -1.99 (#318)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.17 (#174) -2.95 (#320)
RPI 0.420 (#299) 0.385 (#330)
Shooting & Four Factors CAM CCU
FG% 41.8% 44.1%
3PT% 28.1% 36.4%
REB / G 29.8 37.1
OREB / G 6.3 8.9
AST / TO 0.84 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.1% 51.6%
TOV% 18.8% 19.7%
ORB% 19.5% 27.2%
FT Rate 24.8% 21.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.3% 43.5%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 10.3%
DRB% 79.2% 75.0%
Opp FT Rate 23.3% 31.7%

Game Analysis

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