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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
35–15 on winners
spread MAE 9.3
50 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+0.5 | 130.3 | 59% | 62–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.8 | 142.0 | 71% | 67–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 136.2 | 61% | 60–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 141.8 | 80% | 79–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 145.6 | 63% | 103–100 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.3 | 148.6 | 80% | 73–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 142.5 | 47% | 69–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.8 | 141.4 | 69% | 74–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.8 | 140.9 | 66% | 61–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 143.1 | 39% | 63–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 134.2 | 73% | 68–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.3 | 146.5 | 89% | 69–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.6 | 148.9 | 85% | 52–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.6 | 148.2 | 27% | 76–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 142.0 | 85% | 48–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 147.5 | 73% | 71–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.8 | 149.4 | 87% | 72–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 151.0 | 38% | 86–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 144.4 | 57% | 80–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.4 | 151.0 | 82% | 93–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 140.7 | 66% | 73–51 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 145.6 | 72% | 77–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.0 | 141.3 | 56% | 68–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.9 | 148.3 | 90% | 70–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 141.0 | 62% | 68–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 150.9 | 84% | 71–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 142.7 | 87% | 61–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 146.7 | 40% | 83–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.7 | 153.8 | 89% | 72–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.0 | 145.8 | 89% | 54–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 145.0 | 63% | 67–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.6 | 149.8 | 86% | 61–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 135.4 | 86% | 44–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 146.7 | 71% | 86–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.4 | 145.1 | 81% | 72–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.4 | 147.4 | 89% | 53–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.4 | 147.4 | 90% | 64–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 151.2 | 73% | 75–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 142.4 | 37% | 64–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.9 | 148.4 | 73% | 66–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.7 | 145.9 | 90% | 74–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 142.0 | 81% | 63–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 133.2 | 87% | 58–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 145.0 | 76% | 72–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 138.9 | 63% | 67–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 146.4 | 70% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.6 | 153.0 | 32% | 88–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 147.2 | 47% | 73–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.8 | 145.0 | 67% | 59–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 155.5 | 50% | 75–84 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.