Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -6000 ALST +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +29 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -16.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -17.2 (+11.8) | 154.1 (+18.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -16.0 (+13.0) | 154.6 (+18.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -15.1 (+13.9) | 154.2 (+18.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -18.7 (+10.3) | 153.8 (+19.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-6 | 8-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#58) | -1.2 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#68) | -0.85 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#54) | -1.53 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#94) | 0.465 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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