Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -195 ETSU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +10 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -4.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -2.5 (+7.5) | 142.2 (-10.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -3.8 (+6.2) | 144.4 (-12.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -3.8 (+6.2) | 143.1 (-11.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -4.8 (+5.2) | 140.9 (-8.9) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#116) | 3.6 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#201) | 0.10 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#164) | 0.33 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#216) | 0.488 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 80.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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