But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
Atlantic Union Bank Center · December 4, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread JMU -4.5 Home covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money JMU -195 / ETSU +165
Model Predictions
Spread Total JMU win
Actual JMU +10 132 Won
Massey JMU -4.5 (+5.5)
Massey Totals 146.9 (-14.9)
Bradley-Terry 63%
Weighted B-T 68%
Baseline Plus ML JMU -2.5 (+7.5) 142.2 (-10.2) 59%
Baseline ML JMU -3.8 (+6.2) 144.4 (-12.4) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML JMU -3.8 (+6.2) 143.1 (-11.1) 62%
Efficiency Plus ML JMU -4.8 (+5.2) 140.9 (-8.9) 66%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings JMU ETSU
Overall 20-12 19-13
Conference 13-5 12-6
Home 13-2 13-3
Away 5-8 6-9
Neutral 2-2 0-1
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 72.3 71.6
Avg Pts Against 71.3 67.4
Massey 2.9 (#116) 3.6 (#107)
Bradley-Terry -0.29 (#201) 0.10 (#162)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.00 (#164) 0.33 (#139)
RPI 0.479 (#216) 0.488 (#189)
Shooting & Four Factors JMU ETSU
FG% 43.8% 46.1%
3PT% 35.6% 36.9%
REB / G 36.1 39.7
OREB / G 12.6 15.0
AST / TO 1.07 1.34
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.6% 53.1%
TOV% 18.8% 15.4%
ORB% 35.2% 40.2%
FT Rate 19.2% 19.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.0% 50.4%
Opp TOV% 15.3% 18.8%
DRB% 80.5% 71.5%
Opp FT Rate 27.1% 22.8%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.