Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | LSU -200 FSU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +10 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -6.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -5.6 (+4.4) | 152.3 (+7.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -6.2 (+3.8) | 147.8 (+12.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -6.1 (+3.9) | 147.6 (+12.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -5.7 (+4.3) | 151.2 (+8.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-7 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#57) | 9.0 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#18) | 2.23 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.86 (#18) | 3.17 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#46) | 0.584 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 25.5% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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