Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | IU -1400 SHSU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +26 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | IU -14.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -13.1 (+12.9) | 150.8 (+17.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -13.6 (+12.4) | 153.3 (+14.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -12.5 (+13.5) | 154.1 (+13.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -11.7 (+14.3) | 150.9 (+17.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#65) | -0.5 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#77) | -0.33 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#74) | -1.08 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#61) | 0.479 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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