All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse · December 4, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread DUQ -4.5 Away covered
O/U 127.5 Under
Money DUQ -215 / SPU +180
Model Predictions
Spread Total DUQ win
Actual SPU +3 121 Lost
Massey SPU -0.6 (-2.4)
Massey Totals 129.4 (-8.4)
Bradley-Terry 27%
Weighted B-T 37%
Baseline Plus ML DUQ -0.7 (-3.7) 131.5 (-10.5) 55%
Baseline ML DUQ -0.4 (-3.4) 133.3 (-12.3) 53%
Baseline Tuned ML DUQ -0.1 (-3.1) 133.2 (-12.2) 45%
Efficiency Plus ML DUQ -0.5 (-3.5) 130.3 (-9.3) 59%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 9, 2023 DUQ 6859 SPU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DUQ SPU
Overall 13-19 12-16
Conference 8-10 7-13
Home 9-7 6-6
Away 2-8 6-10
Neutral 2-4 0-0
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L3 W1
Avg Pts For 68.4 64.1
Avg Pts Against 68.1 66.3
Massey -7.1 (#299) -1.2 (#186)
Bradley-Terry -2.50 (#340) -0.55 (#226)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.63 (#309) -1.00 (#230)
RPI 0.392 (#323) 0.458 (#251)
Shooting & Four Factors DUQ SPU
FG% 41.3% 42.4%
3PT% 29.4% 37.5%
REB / G 33.6 35.2
OREB / G 10.1 12.0
AST / TO 0.94 0.71
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.4% 50.7%
TOV% 18.7% 22.0%
ORB% 28.3% 36.1%
FT Rate 20.7% 23.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.2% 47.0%
Opp TOV% 20.9% 15.3%
DRB% 71.0% 67.8%
Opp FT Rate 29.3% 38.1%

Game Analysis

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