Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -215 SPU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +3 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -0.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -0.7 (-3.7) | 131.5 (-10.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -0.4 (-3.4) | 133.3 (-12.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -0.1 (-3.1) | 133.2 (-12.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -0.5 (-3.5) | 130.3 (-9.3) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | DUQ 68 – 59 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-7 | 6-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#299) | -1.2 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#340) | -0.55 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#309) | -1.00 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#323) | 0.458 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 38.1% |
Game Analysis
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