Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -3000 EMU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +22 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -15.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -14.6 (+7.4) | 146.0 (-16.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -13.5 (+8.5) | 146.3 (-16.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -14.6 (+7.4) | 145.5 (-15.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -17.0 (+5.0) | 145.8 (-15.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#95) | -5.4 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#23) | 0.16 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#33) | -0.59 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#34) | 0.468 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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