Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
Gentile Arena · December 4, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread LUC -18.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money LUC -3000 / EMU +1200
Model Predictions
Spread Total LUC win
Actual LUC +22 130 Won
Massey LUC -15.4 (+6.6)
Massey Totals 146.6 (-16.6)
Bradley-Terry 97%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML LUC -14.6 (+7.4) 146.0 (-16.0) 86%
Baseline ML LUC -13.5 (+8.5) 146.3 (-16.3) 86%
Baseline Tuned ML LUC -14.6 (+7.4) 145.5 (-15.5) 88%
Efficiency Plus ML LUC -17.0 (+5.0) 145.8 (-15.8) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LUC EMU
Overall 25-12 16-16
Conference 12-6 9-9
Home 17-1 9-5
Away 7-5 6-10
Neutral 1-6 1-1
Last 5 5-0 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 72.7 73.3
Avg Pts Against 69.4 77.1
Massey 4.6 (#95) -5.4 (#267)
Bradley-Terry 2.82 (#23) 0.16 (#156)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.76 (#33) -0.59 (#208)
RPI 0.623 (#34) 0.468 (#234)
Shooting & Four Factors LUC EMU
FG% 45.9% 42.6%
3PT% 32.5% 33.5%
REB / G 39.8 33.3
OREB / G 13.0 10.4
AST / TO 1.90 0.99
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.4% 49.1%
TOV% 14.5% 18.5%
ORB% 34.0% 29.3%
FT Rate 26.7% 23.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 42.4% 51.2%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 19.8%
DRB% 69.1% 68.7%
Opp FT Rate 27.1% 28.5%

Game Analysis

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