Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MER -800 WGA +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +14 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MER -10.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -8.0 (+6.0) | 146.1 (+11.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -8.7 (+5.3) | 142.9 (+15.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -8.4 (+5.6) | 143.6 (+14.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -7.0 (+7.0) | 145.0 (+13.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-6 | 4-8 |
| Away | 5-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#263) | -10.7 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#218) | -3.08 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#239) | -4.36 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#187) | 0.370 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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