Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -175 BAY +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -4.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -4.1 (-0.1) | 151.9 (-3.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -4.6 (-0.6) | 152.8 (-4.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -5.6 (-1.6) | 153.0 (-5.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -4.8 (-0.8) | 146.4 (+1.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#23) | 15.3 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#165) | 2.55 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#125) | 3.59 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#259) | 0.638 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 14.9 |
| AST / TO | 2.01 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 39.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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