Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | MIA +160 ARK -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -6.2 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -6.0 (+3.0) | 152.2 (-3.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -5.6 (+2.6) | 149.2 (-0.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.4 (+2.4) | 149.0 (+0.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -3.6 (+0.6) | 148.2 (+0.8) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-10 | 13-4 |
| Away | 0-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#135) | 13.5 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#318) | 0.86 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#305) | 1.43 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#325) | 0.541 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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