Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | PROV +170 BYU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +19 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -4.5 (+23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -1.1 (+20.1) | 141.1 (+5.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -2.5 (+21.5) | 144.7 (+2.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -1.5 (+20.5) | 141.9 (+5.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -1.4 (+20.4) | 142.4 (+4.6) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#131) | 11.9 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#152) | 1.44 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#149) | 2.04 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#166) | 0.547 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 42.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 80.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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