Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | OU -900 GT +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +15 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | OU -16.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -15.3 (-0.3) | 151.9 (-14.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -14.3 (+0.7) | 149.5 (-12.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -14.8 (+0.2) | 149.3 (-12.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -12.6 (+2.4) | 149.8 (-12.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-6 |
| Away | 2-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#52) | -0.1 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#12) | -0.92 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.10 (#10) | -1.38 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#56) | 0.408 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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