Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -800 UNCA +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +22 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -14.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -13.4 (+8.6) | 147.4 (-21.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -13.1 (+8.9) | 146.4 (-20.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -14.2 (+7.8) | 145.6 (-19.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -12.6 (+9.4) | 148.9 (-22.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-5 |
| Home | 18-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#70) | -1.6 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#178) | 0.30 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#103) | 0.42 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#218) | 0.494 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 37.1% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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