Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -1400 HAW +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +6 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -8.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -5.7 (+0.3) | 149.8 (+0.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -6.6 (-0.6) | 149.0 (+1.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -6.1 (-0.1) | 147.7 (+2.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -8.4 (-2.4) | 145.1 (+4.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-7 |
| Away | 5-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#144) | -2.0 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#93) | 0.45 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#111) | 0.63 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#82) | 0.511 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 37.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 11.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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