Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -165 MISS +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +23 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -10.2 (-33.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -7.9 (-30.9) | 147.4 (+1.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -9.4 (-32.4) | 148.7 (+0.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -9.6 (-32.6) | 146.5 (+2.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -6.0 (-29.0) | 146.7 (+2.3) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#22) | 10.2 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#34) | 2.19 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.80 (#19) | 3.63 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#32) | 0.583 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 11.7% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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