Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -105 HPU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -8.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -5.1 (-1.1) | 132.5 (+7.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -4.1 (-0.1) | 133.5 (+6.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -4.1 (-0.1) | 133.0 (+7.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -5.1 (-1.1) | 134.2 (+5.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | HPU 74 – 63 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-2 |
| Home | 11-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#152) | -2.3 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#301) | 0.44 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#302) | 0.17 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#299) | 0.479 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.