Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | WEB -195 NDSU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | WEB -1.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -2.7 (-6.7) | 145.6 (+4.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -3.0 (-7.0) | 147.3 (+2.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -3.2 (-7.2) | 146.3 (+3.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -3.3 (-7.3) | 147.7 (+2.3) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-22 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-6 |
| Home | 5-10 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#221) | 0.3 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#189) | -0.58 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#178) | -0.73 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#155) | 0.428 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 10.9% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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