Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK -170 IDST +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +14 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -0.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -2.4 (+11.6) | 150.6 (+23.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -3.8 (+10.2) | 151.0 (+23.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -2.9 (+11.1) | 150.2 (+23.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -0.9 (+13.1) | 150.5 (+23.5) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 86.6 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#163) | 3.8 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#146) | -0.54 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#167) | -0.08 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#144) | 0.501 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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