I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
FedExForum · December 5, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MEM -11.5 Away covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money MEM -800 / LT +500
Model Predictions
Spread Total MEM win
Actual MEM +10 152 Won
Massey MEM -14.5 (-4.5)
Massey Totals 155.9 (-3.9)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML MEM -11.5 (-1.5) 152.1 (-0.1) 83%
Baseline ML MEM -13.1 (-3.1) 151.8 (+0.2) 84%
Baseline Tuned ML MEM -12.6 (-2.6) 150.3 (+1.7) 86%
Efficiency Plus ML MEM -10.2 (-0.2) 150.5 (+1.5) 85%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MEM LT
Overall 29-6 20-12
Conference 16-2 9-9
Home 13-2 11-4
Away 11-2 5-7
Neutral 5-2 4-1
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 79.9 71.5
Avg Pts Against 73.4 69.3
Massey 13.8 (#27) 4.4 (#101)
Bradley-Terry 3.85 (#9) 0.84 (#104)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.67 (#9) 1.41 (#92)
RPI 0.743 (#2) 0.487 (#191)
Shooting & Four Factors MEM LT
FG% 49.0% 46.9%
3PT% 46.9% 34.8%
REB / G 34.0 37.2
OREB / G 8.9 9.3
AST / TO 0.99 1.34
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.7% 54.0%
TOV% 18.2% 17.5%
ORB% 28.3% 28.9%
FT Rate 34.5% 29.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.8% 46.9%
Opp TOV% 17.7% 15.5%
DRB% 67.4% 69.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.8% 17.8%

Game Analysis

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