Betting Lines
| Spread | ORU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ORU -210 NAU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORU +7 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ORU -1.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORU -1.1 (+5.9) | 143.0 (+16.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORU -0.5 (+6.5) | 145.1 (+13.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORU -1.1 (+5.9) | 143.8 (+15.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORU -1.6 (+5.4) | 141.9 (+17.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 0-15 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.0 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#316) | -5.7 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#342) | 0.36 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.49 (#338) | -0.22 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#305) | 0.505 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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