Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -6000 GASO +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +35 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -15.8 (+19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -15.4 (+19.6) | 143.0 (+0.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -13.5 (+21.5) | 143.3 (-0.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -13.4 (+21.6) | 142.4 (+0.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -17.3 (+17.7) | 142.9 (+0.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#71) | -2.6 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#154) | -0.05 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#136) | -0.96 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#123) | 0.482 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 38.6% |
Game Analysis
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