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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–6 on winners spread MAE 6.5 22 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Samford @ South Carolina State	-6.0	155.6	20%	88–81	✓
Radford @ North Carolina Central	-1.7	139.3	39%	70–67	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Longwood	+18.7	142.9	91%	76–80	✓
Wright State @ Oakland	+1.8	132.7	57%	64–66	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+9.0	138.8	82%	65–68	✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls	+0.7	136.4	62%	64–67	✓
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word	+3.1	140.1	59%	72–70	✗
Drake @ Valparaiso	-8.8	131.1	17%	66–60	✓
Jackson State @ Arkansas State	+15.2	145.6	89%	64–66	✓
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+9.0	146.6	68%	65–61	✗
East Texas A&M @ Houston Christian	+1.7	135.3	66%	79–83	✓
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee	+8.3	133.4	78%	67–79	✓
Xavier @ TCU	+3.8	138.6	74%	72–76	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Davis	+0.8	153.6	62%	66–77	✓
Saint Louis @ San Francisco	+17.7	143.7	89%	61–78	✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge	+9.6	148.4	81%	68–64	✗
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara	+2.2	134.6	54%	84–76	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine	+14.9	138.1	88%	66–82	✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Fullerton	+6.6	127.4	59%	73–56	✗
Delaware @ Duquesne	+2.5	144.1	64%	66–80	✓
Brown @ Bryant	+4.8	147.0	65%	76–75	✗
Siena @ Niagara	+1.3	132.2	63%	68–69	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.