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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–14 on winners spread MAE 12.1 50 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Memphis @ East Carolina	-4.3	144.1	36%	82–58	✓
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb	-0.1	146.4	53%	69–72	✗
William & Mary @ Elon	+2.4	140.7	62%	71–76	✓
Towson @ North Carolina A&T	-10.9	131.7	17%	84–58	✓
Stony Brook @ Drexel	+7.8	141.4	80%	86–90	✓
Northeastern @ Delaware	+5.5	135.2	73%	67–73	✓
Monmouth @ Hampton	-6.3	147.0	29%	56–64	✗
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington	+2.8	144.9	63%	69–58	✗
Campbell @ Charleston	+15.5	154.1	88%	73–96	✓
Merrimack @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-3.3	145.6	36%	74–55	✓
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut	+10.5	141.9	87%	64–78	✓
Wagner @ Le Moyne	+2.5	129.9	58%	56–70	✓
Sacred Heart @ Stonehill	-4.5	141.7	31%	79–51	✓
UMBC @ NJIT	-1.2	150.8	40%	79–60	✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany	+0.3	159.1	49%	67–91	✓
UTEP @ Jacksonville State	+4.0	132.6	54%	72–65	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State	+16.3	139.7	89%	50–72	✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota	-1.0	146.9	44%	72–62	✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota	-3.2	152.4	38%	68–88	✗
Omaha @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+7.5	140.0	78%	61–88	✓
Stanford @ Utah	+8.5	157.0	80%	68–90	✓
Michigan @ Rutgers	+4.9	140.2	76%	52–82	✓
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin	+9.4	150.8	84%	69–80	✓
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana	+7.3	140.6	76%	67–63	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Western Illinois	+5.1	133.3	69%	66–70	✓
Abilene Christian @ Southern Utah	+2.5	149.4	60%	77–68	✗
Santa Clara @ Portland	-9.9	149.8	22%	75–80	✗
Tennessee State @ Little Rock	+4.9	142.9	71%	60–85	✓
Kansas City @ Denver	+1.0	157.2	50%	84–69	✗
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech	-3.7	144.1	29%	85–74	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Grand Canyon	+18.4	152.2	90%	43–72	✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis	+0.1	138.7	53%	63–75	✓
New Mexico State @ Liberty	+13.2	138.2	87%	58–83	✓
Northern Colorado @ Weber State	+4.6	146.7	74%	81–85	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State	+6.1	138.2	70%	92–88	✗
Montana State @ Idaho	-0.6	138.8	41%	62–48	✓
Montana @ Eastern Washington	+2.9	150.5	66%	79–89	✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount	+4.9	145.7	70%	62–96	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ California Baptist	+0.4	135.4	59%	62–60	✗
UT Arlington @ Seattle U	+6.5	144.8	76%	82–62	✗
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge	-6.4	149.0	24%	89–64	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State	+5.8	142.9	71%	76–71	✗
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield	-3.6	138.9	33%	57–70	✗
Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara	+12.9	137.8	87%	75–83	✓
USC @ Washington State	+9.5	143.3	84%	72–75	✓
UCLA @ Washington	+5.1	140.6	56%	77–94	✓
Saint Mary's @ Pepperdine	-15.1	137.7	12%	83–57	✓
Gonzaga @ San Francisco	-1.0	148.2	45%	86–68	✓
Bowling Green @ Ohio	+7.7	147.0	79%	59–66	✓
Arkansas State @ App State	+8.3	149.8	80%	57–80	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.