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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–14 on winners spread MAE 8.5 50 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Bryant @ Boston University	+4.1	139.5	69%	79–95	✓
NJIT @ American University	+14.9	139.3	89%	73–87	✓
Presbyterian @ North Florida	+4.0	146.1	66%	81–69	✗
Furman @ Liberty	—	—	—	74–88	—
Wright State @ Indiana	+9.2	146.7	86%	80–89	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UCF	—	—	—	44–72	—
Texas Southern @ Virginia	+24.5	127.0	90%	33–62	✓
Louisiana Tech @ UL Monroe	—	—	—	73–63	—
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Texas Tech	—	—	—	64–73	—
Alcorn State @ UAB	+14.7	146.6	88%	77–80	✓
Chicago State @ Southern Illinois	—	—	—	55–71	—
Nicholls @ South Alabama	+1.4	135.3	57%	102–97	✗
Jackson State @ Tulsa	+9.6	145.9	84%	52–72	✓
UT Arlington @ New Mexico	—	—	—	80–82	—
Missouri @ Minnesota	+5.9	147.0	57%	70–68	✗
Auburn @ Notre Dame	—	—	—	83–59	—
UMass Lowell @ Arizona State	-4.6	137.6	39%	69–71	✗
William & Mary @ Omaha	-4.3	145.9	29%	83–89	✗
Utah @ Wake Forest	—	—	—	77–70	—
North Dakota State @ Montana	+6.4	138.8	69%	78–69	✗
Montana State @ California	—	—	—	63–60	—
Niagara @ Hawai'i	—	—	—	73–92	—
Sacred Heart @ UMBC	-0.2	159.7	70%	80–85	✗
North Texas @ LSU	-0.5	133.1	65%	62–66	✗
Vermont @ Saint Louis	-2.7	139.5	40%	78–68	✓
Norfolk State @ Fordham	—	—	—	64–77	—
Northern Illinois @ Georgia State	—	—	—	70–64	—
St. John's @ Dayton	+4.2	131.7	65%	81–88	✓
VMI @ South Dakota	+0.7	152.1	68%	81–85	✓
Charleston @ Wyoming	+0.1	141.6	61%	60–67	✓
Georgia @ Miami	+6.5	150.1	74%	68–79	✓
Abilene Christian @ San José State	+2.6	130.5	49%	77–71	✗
Denver @ South Alabama	+1.0	149.1	63%	75–82	✓
Lindenwood @ Omaha	+5.9	135.2	68%	72–70	✗
Weber State @ Gardner-Webb	—	—	—	61–62	—
Maine @ Presbyterian	+0.9	135.0	35%	80–66	✗
Houston @ Utah	-6.8	131.1	19%	76–66	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Arizona	-9.9	143.3	19%	77–67	✓
Notre Dame @ Oklahoma State	+3.6	130.1	65%	66–64	✗
Holy Cross @ Winthrop	+1.4	141.5	70%	51–89	✓
Quinnipiac @ Army	-1.0	131.4	40%	67–58	✓
Bucknell @ Duke	+19.0	140.1	89%	60–90	✓
Delaware State @ Grambling	—	—	—	71–63	—
Hampton @ Kent State	—	—	—	62–100	—
Colgate @ Yale	—	—	—	50–68	—
Providence @ Kansas State	-3.0	144.7	56%	70–73	✗
Butler @ Michigan State	-4.0	138.3	53%	54–74	✗
William & Mary @ Air Force	+5.2	144.5	72%	71–80	✓
Utah Tech @ Youngstown State	—	—	—	68–75	—
Coastal Carolina @ Furman	—	—	—	80–89	—

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.