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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–12 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
48 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-7.3 | 129.1 | 16% | 82–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.2 | 131.5 | 90% | 41–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 139.1 | 60% | 76–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.2 | 141.0 | 71% | 76–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 136.6 | 33% | 74–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 123.2 | 74% | 46–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 134.6 | 60% | 61–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 147.1 | 60% | 79–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 132.9 | 24% | 80–55 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.1 | 143.1 | 38% | 70–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.6 | 146.5 | 36% | 65–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.7 | 132.9 | 40% | 63–46 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 128.6 | 65% | 55–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 134.7 | 38% | 78–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.5 | 139.1 | 89% | 60–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 150.2 | 63% | 91–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 137.7 | 61% | 76–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 138.4 | 82% | 58–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 137.7 | 79% | 52–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 134.4 | 65% | 79–68 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.1 | 130.8 | 32% | 70–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.3 | 127.7 | 76% | 66–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 146.7 | 71% | 64–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 141.9 | 44% | 72–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 142.2 | 74% | 81–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 146.8 | 72% | 85–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.9 | 134.2 | 85% | 50–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 132.0 | 58% | 67–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 149.5 | 73% | 84–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.2 | 143.2 | 90% | 75–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.4 | 131.4 | 24% | 56–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.4 | 152.4 | 87% | 66–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 136.9 | 82% | 66–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.8 | 145.6 | 14% | 73–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.6 | 131.6 | 86% | 75–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.3 | 131.4 | 33% | 74–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 142.3 | 85% | 58–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.5 | 143.5 | 86% | 63–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 135.2 | 71% | 79–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 147.1 | 50% | 95–90 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.5 | 136.6 | 79% | 65–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 156.7 | 82% | 76–104 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.6 | 136.6 | 17% | 61–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.2 | 136.9 | 88% | 65–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 144.5 | 77% | 75–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 125.1 | 76% | 65–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.3 | 131.7 | 68% | 59–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 133.4 | 51% | 71–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.