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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
39–11 on winners
spread MAE 7.8
50 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+11.9 | 139.9 | 86% | 50–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 159.5 | 59% | 80–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.0 | 123.9 | 58% | 55–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 131.6 | 79% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.2 | 136.4 | 86% | 58–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 147.4 | 81% | 56–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 141.1 | 49% | 63–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 133.7 | 70% | 59–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.1 | 146.2 | 90% | 53–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 131.4 | 38% | 51–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.2 | 151.0 | 26% | 85–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 128.1 | 29% | 75–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 148.1 | 49% | 72–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.7 | 148.1 | 15% | 88–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.3 | 148.4 | 91% | 63–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.2 | 141.0 | 18% | 87–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 139.3 | 60% | 71–48 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.3 | 139.0 | 81% | 63–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 143.9 | 26% | 84–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.8 | 149.1 | 89% | 50–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 141.0 | 52% | 60–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 145.8 | 66% | 62–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 148.4 | 38% | 67–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 144.7 | 67% | 82–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 130.6 | 60% | 61–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.1 | 143.0 | 87% | 58–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 140.8 | 80% | 62–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.5 | 142.9 | 33% | 72–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.8 | 131.9 | 88% | 49–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 153.7 | 79% | 64–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 138.1 | 40% | 65–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+18.4 | 125.0 | 89% | 37–47 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 130.6 | 34% | 79–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.7 | 136.8 | 18% | 70–47 | ✓ |
|
|
-14.0 | 152.7 | 16% | 82–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 136.9 | 45% | 59–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.7 | 130.6 | 85% | 54–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 144.3 | 83% | 76–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 127.3 | 48% | 57–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.7 | 129.8 | 38% | 67–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 130.5 | 83% | 66–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 133.4 | 75% | 36–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 132.0 | 59% | 56–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 145.5 | 61% | 77–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.5 | 130.5 | 83% | 50–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.8 | 142.8 | 89% | 52–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 134.6 | 27% | 68–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+25.7 | 148.6 | 91% | 62–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 145.8 | 79% | 73–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.5 | 130.5 | 86% | 64–82 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.