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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–17 on winners spread MAE 10.6 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Gardner-Webb @ Wofford	+2.6	141.3	57%	64–88	✓
Morehead State @ Marshall	+11.8	140.2	86%	77–80	✓
Coastal Carolina @ Campbell	+4.1	131.1	62%	58–57	✗
Illinois State @ Belmont	+5.0	150.3	77%	97–99	✓
Coppin State @ Wagner	+10.6	126.6	84%	52–65	✓
Furman @ Florida Gulf Coast	+1.9	124.8	48%	76–73	✗
Bellarmine @ Western Carolina	+3.4	145.3	61%	74–86	✓
Monmouth @ Lehigh	+3.7	145.3	63%	63–90	✓
Cornell @ Colgate	+2.4	143.6	58%	84–57	✗
St. Bonaventure @ Bucknell	-4.5	137.4	31%	64–47	✓
Central Connecticut @ Massachusetts	+3.5	135.7	64%	73–69	✗
George Washington @ American University	-1.5	143.5	43%	71–81	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Fordham	+10.4	150.6	84%	75–84	✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris	+5.2	135.1	75%	72–58	✗
Tennessee Tech @ North Alabama	+4.8	146.6	69%	59–82	✓
Rider @ Fairfield	-0.8	132.6	47%	75–78	✗
Georgia Southern @ VCU	+13.4	142.4	87%	54–89	✓
Alabama @ North Carolina	+4.0	168.2	66%	94–79	✗
Virginia @ Florida	+17.9	135.4	89%	69–87	✓
Alcorn State @ Wichita State	+16.7	141.7	90%	54–78	✓
Marquette @ Iowa State	+4.6	150.9	60%	70–81	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Memphis	+12.6	150.3	86%	71–81	✓
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa	-1.1	150.5	43%	76–55	✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC	+0.8	149.4	64%	83–56	✗
Central Arkansas @ Little Rock	+9.6	138.5	82%	57–63	✓
Montana State @ Omaha	-3.3	140.9	37%	76–65	✓
Idaho State @ South Dakota	+2.9	150.2	62%	80–94	✓
Northern Arizona @ Oral Roberts	+1.1	143.8	49%	76–83	✓
Idaho @ Kansas City	+2.5	136.6	57%	82–77	✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Northern Colorado	+5.0	153.2	72%	87–75	✗
Michigan State @ Minnesota	-4.4	132.8	32%	90–72	✓
NJIT @ Seton Hall	+11.0	128.6	84%	56–67	✓
Kansas @ Creighton	-3.2	145.2	32%	63–76	✗
Abilene Christian @ New Mexico State	+3.0	135.6	60%	78–70	✗
Wyoming @ Utah State	+16.1	145.4	91%	67–70	✓
San José State @ New Mexico	+14.5	150.0	89%	77–83	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Colorado State	+5.5	140.2	69%	54–83	✓
Sacramento State @ Denver	-0.3	137.0	41%	59–80	✗
South Dakota State @ Montana	+2.0	148.0	58%	67–71	✓
North Dakota State @ Weber State	+3.2	146.3	61%	77–73	✗
North Dakota @ Eastern Washington	+9.1	144.3	80%	81–87	✓
Pittsburgh @ Mississippi State	+3.2	150.9	57%	57–90	✓
Texas @ NC State	+1.9	138.3	53%	63–59	✗
Vanderbilt @ Virginia Tech	-3.4	141.6	32%	80–64	✓
DePaul @ Texas Tech	+8.2	148.7	74%	62–76	✓
Auburn @ Duke	+6.0	140.9	64%	78–84	✓
Portland State @ Seattle U	+12.0	148.8	86%	74–91	✓
Oregon @ USC	-6.2	143.3	25%	68–60	✓
San Diego State @ Fresno State	-8.0	141.3	23%	84–62	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Lipscomb	+13.8	142.8	87%	60–78	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy	-3.4	147.4	39%	78–79	✗
Alabama State @ Southern Miss	+1.1	150.7	52%	64–81	✓
Purdue @ Penn State	+4.3	148.4	68%	70–81	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.