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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–8 on winners spread MAE 6.9 22 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Samford @ South Carolina State	-2.7	155.7	37%	88–81	✓
Radford @ North Carolina Central	-2.2	141.7	40%	70–67	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Longwood	+15.9	142.8	90%	76–80	✓
Wright State @ Oakland	+1.7	133.3	60%	64–66	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+8.8	141.7	86%	65–68	✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls	-0.6	136.1	47%	64–67	✗
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word	+2.4	141.9	63%	72–70	✗
Drake @ Valparaiso	-7.8	135.9	24%	66–60	✓
Jackson State @ Arkansas State	+16.2	143.7	89%	64–66	✓
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+9.9	151.1	86%	65–61	✗
East Texas A&M @ Houston Christian	+0.5	132.9	54%	79–83	✓
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee	+8.5	133.9	83%	67–79	✓
Xavier @ TCU	+3.4	137.2	63%	72–76	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Davis	-1.2	152.4	43%	66–77	✗
Saint Louis @ San Francisco	+17.6	145.1	90%	61–78	✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge	+11.1	149.2	87%	68–64	✗
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara	+2.3	136.7	64%	84–76	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine	+13.4	136.1	88%	66–82	✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Fullerton	+6.4	127.3	75%	73–56	✗
Delaware @ Duquesne	+1.3	143.6	51%	66–80	✓
Brown @ Bryant	+5.1	147.2	69%	76–75	✗
Siena @ Niagara	+1.0	132.1	58%	68–69	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.