Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–13 on winners spread MAE 8.9 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marshall @ Louisiana Tech +8.0 150.7 81% 67–77 ✓
San José State @ Fresno State +12.5 127.0 87% 67–69 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas State +0.2 140.6 51% 73–67 ✗
Hartford @ UMBC +5.2 154.4 72% 60–80 ✓
Binghamton @ Vermont +17.5 137.7 90% 42–74 ✓
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +2.5 131.9 59% 75–76 ✓
Rider @ Iona +10.1 138.7 82% 71–70 ✗
Navy @ Colgate +6.4 133.5 73% 58–74 ✓
DePaul @ St. John's +5.7 159.4 74% 73–92 ✓
Georgia @ Vanderbilt +9.2 144.7 82% 51–86 ✓
McNeese @ Northwestern State -1.2 158.2 43% 80–67 ✓
Coppin State @ Howard +5.1 146.4 72% 59–57 ✗
Minnesota @ Penn State +1.6 129.9 56% 51–60 ✓
Old Dominion @ UTEP +0.7 130.5 53% 64–74 ✓
California @ Washington State +7.3 131.9 77% 59–66 ✓
California Baptist @ Sam Houston +2.0 132.9 57% 35–65 ✓
Southern Miss @ Florida Atlantic +12.6 142.2 86% 59–86 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State +3.0 143.4 65% 63–64 ✓
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +3.9 127.5 66% 63–77 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia +4.6 128.3 69% 50–51 ✓
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +10.8 144.4 84% 53–57 ✓
Utah @ Washington +0.1 142.6 53% 70–82 ✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian -0.7 135.9 49% 74–82 ✗
Central Michigan @ Toledo +16.4 147.2 89% 71–72 ✓
Indiana @ Michigan +0.7 140.0 53% 74–69 ✗
Syracuse @ Duke +9.7 157.9 82% 79–88 ✓
Butler @ Providence +8.3 136.8 79% 61–65 ✓
Florida @ Texas A&M -0.3 139.3 51% 80–83 ✗
George Mason @ Fordham -3.6 133.1 36% 49–54 ✗
TCU @ Texas +3.2 128.6 61% 65–60 ✗
East Carolina @ Cincinnati +4.4 135.5 65% 63–74 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron -0.8 143.0 47% 68–70 ✗
Northwestern @ Iowa +7.8 150.7 78% 76–112 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +8.2 137.9 80% 61–83 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Louis +9.9 140.0 83% 51–71 ✓
Boston College @ Miami +6.8 143.0 76% 69–71 ✓
Marquette @ Creighton -1.7 141.4 42% 63–74 ✗
Stanford @ Arizona +15.1 146.4 87% 80–84 ✓
Nevada @ Boise State +7.9 136.5 79% 69–71 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +6.3 136.7 74% 60–58 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State +6.2 140.6 74% 61–72 ✓
Missouri @ LSU +12.7 135.3 86% 68–76 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas +11.5 152.6 87% 63–87 ✓
Tulsa @ Wichita State +5.9 135.5 72% 73–67 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Kent State +6.9 141.8 76% 75–85 ✓
Montana @ Weber State +2.8 142.4 62% 56–68 ✓
Oregon @ Colorado +0.9 141.9 55% 69–80 ✓
UNLV @ Wyoming +2.5 135.8 61% 56–59 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Irvine +0.4 130.6 51% 78–69 ✗
Mississippi State @ South Carolina -2.4 137.4 41% 73–51 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +5.8 148.0 74% 60–75 ✓
South Carolina State @ Morgan State +1.1 141.5 56% 77–80 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Washington -1.7 152.6 43% 99–88 ✓
Rice @ North Texas +9.7 128.3 82% 50–68 ✓
Ball State @ Ohio +8.1 145.7 80% 67–77 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan State +3.2 141.5 63% 72–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.