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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–10 on winners spread MAE 9.9 32 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Wagner @ Bryant	-1.2	154.2	46%	43–70	✗
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington	-1.1	137.7	46%	59–55	✓
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky	+0.2	138.9	49%	72–71	✗
Georgia Tech @ Louisville	+1.2	137.5	56%	74–84	✓
Canisius @ Fairfield	+1.7	132.8	56%	50–72	✓
Marshall @ Florida International	-0.7	146.4	48%	74–62	✓
Southern Miss @ UTSA	+2.7	140.9	61%	67–64	✗
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga	+7.3	138.1	76%	69–82	✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State	+6.2	153.7	75%	69–75	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Northridge	-2.7	129.5	39%	58–45	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ California Baptist	+7.3	144.3	78%	80–81	✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist	+2.6	140.0	60%	77–52	✗
Cal Poly @ UC Davis	+5.2	129.1	71%	53–63	✓
Chicago State @ Utah Valley	+12.6	135.2	87%	47–69	✓
Idaho @ Sacramento State	+2.1	146.1	61%	54–57	✓
Syracuse @ Florida State	-1.1	150.4	48%	96–57	✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle	-2.7	135.6	39%	56–63	✗
New Mexico @ Nevada	+2.1	151.4	59%	72–79	✓
Idaho State @ Portland State	+5.0	138.7	71%	52–66	✓
Boston College @ Wake Forest	+9.1	143.7	81%	82–77	✗
Stanford @ Arizona State	+2.5	128.6	62%	71–70	✗
Jackson State @ Texas Southern	+5.0	130.8	70%	50–54	✓
Duquesne @ Rhode Island	+8.0	134.6	80%	77–79	✓
Air Force @ Utah State	+12.5	128.1	85%	56–83	✓
Butler @ Xavier	+7.3	136.1	78%	89–82	✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington	+8.2	143.2	81%	75–78	✓
Oregon State @ Oregon	+10.4	150.0	82%	72–86	✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri	-3.2	135.0	38%	60–72	✗
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian	+1.8	147.7	60%	64–74	✓
Delaware State @ Norfolk State	+16.7	137.4	89%	66–74	✓
Nebraska @ Northwestern	+5.2	149.7	71%	69–71	✓
Rice @ Charlotte	+2.4	145.7	62%	73–61	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.