Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ +160 MISS -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +12 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -4.6 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -2.7 (+14.7) | 132.8 (-0.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -3.2 (+15.2) | 135.0 (-3.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -2.7 (+14.7) | 135.9 (-3.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -3.3 (+15.3) | 134.5 (-2.5) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MISS 76 – 69 MIZ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 75 MISS |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MISS 84 – 78 MIZ |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MISS 79 – 76 MIZ |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MIZ 82 – 77 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-8 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#154) | 5.3 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#140) | 0.63 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#128) | 0.95 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#193) | 0.498 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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