Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +10 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -6.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -5.6 (+4.4) | 127.9 (-11.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -5.2 (+4.8) | 129.1 (-13.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -4.9 (+5.1) | 129.3 (-13.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -5.0 (+5.0) | 129.0 (-13.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UCD 67 – 58 CP |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CP 84 – 78 UCD |
| Mar 13, 2025 | CP 86 – 76 UCD |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCD 65 – 54 CP |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCD 77 – 66 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 7-21 |
| Conference | 5-6 | 2-12 |
| Home | 7-5 | 4-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 60.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#212) | -8.5 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#208) | -1.73 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#217) | -1.77 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#244) | 0.418 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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