Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | USU -1400 AF +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +27 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | USU -14.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -16.2 (+10.8) | 125.1 (+13.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -12.5 (+14.5) | 128.1 (+10.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -12.9 (+14.1) | 128.9 (+10.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -12.8 (+14.2) | 128.0 (+11.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | USU 99 – 62 AF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | USU 87 – 47 AF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | USU 87 – 58 AF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USU 72 – 60 AF |
| Jan 2, 2024 | USU 88 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-13 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 59.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#53) | -4.8 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#85) | -0.21 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#73) | -0.49 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#77) | 0.462 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 26.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 19.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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