Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | GONZ -1000 SMC +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -11.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -7.6 (+5.4) | 137.5 (+13.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -7.3 (+5.7) | 138.1 (+12.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -7.4 (+5.6) | 138.3 (+12.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -7.0 (+6.0) | 140.5 (+10.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 12-3 |
| Home | 16-0 | 16-0 |
| Away | 5-1 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 61.3 |
| Massey | 24.4 (#1) | 13.2 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#3) | 2.81 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.60 (#1) | 3.24 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#15) | 0.645 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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