Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +22 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -2.8 (+19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.1 (+20.9) | 131.6 (-9.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -1.7 (+20.3) | 132.8 (-10.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -1.7 (+20.3) | 132.5 (-10.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -1.9 (+20.1) | 134.1 (-12.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | FAIR 61 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CAN 85 – 81 FAIR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CAN 78 – 67 FAIR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | FAIR 74 – 62 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 63 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#218) | -5.4 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#234) | -0.90 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#237) | -1.36 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#233) | 0.469 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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