Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | LAS +100 JOES -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +7 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -4.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -1.9 (+8.9) | 136.7 (-17.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -2.7 (+9.7) | 135.6 (-16.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -2.7 (+9.7) | 134.5 (-15.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -2.0 (+9.0) | 135.5 (-16.5) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#234) | 0.9 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#239) | -0.38 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#251) | -0.14 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#264) | 0.475 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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