Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -280 BTLR +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +7 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -9.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+40.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -6.9 (-13.9) | 135.6 (+35.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -7.3 (-14.3) | 136.1 (+34.9) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -6.8 (-13.8) | 136.9 (+34.1) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -7.3 (-14.3) | 135.8 (+35.2) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | BTLR 80 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2026 | XAV 89 – 75 BTLR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | XAV 91 – 78 BTLR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | XAV 76 – 63 BTLR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | XAV 76 – 72 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 16-5 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#33) | 2.0 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#40) | 1.08 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#42) | 1.40 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#59) | 0.499 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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