Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -150 UVU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -1.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -0.2 (+7.8) | 137.9 (+18.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -0.7 (+8.7) | 135.9 (+20.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -1.2 (+9.2) | 136.2 (+19.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -0.2 (+8.2) | 137.6 (+18.4) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | UVU 74 – 67 ACU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UVU 68 – 55 ACU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ACU 85 – 68 UVU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UVU 73 – 60 ACU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UVU 64 – 53 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#128) | 3.7 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#134) | 0.82 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#127) | 1.01 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#140) | 0.549 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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